After three long weeks of anticipation, American Pharoah‘s day has finally come. Will it be another day of disappointment? Or will we finally see the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years?
Considering I’ve seen this same scenario 10 times already (that I can remember), and have been let down each time, I’m not getting my hopes up. I’m certainly not betting the horse to win, but he’s obviously worth throwing in your exotic wagers.
While American Pharoah undoubtedly will go off as the odds-on favorite, the Wall Street Journal points out that he’s still a long shot to win the Triple Crown.
Because he will be the odds-on favorite, what good does it do? He’ll probably go off at 2-5, which means for every $5 you bet, you only get a $2 return on investment. So if you bet $2 to win on American Pharoah at 2-5 odds, you’ll get your $2 back plus 80 cents…just wanted to clear that up for all the rookies.
My pick to win the Belmont Stakes is Frosted. He’s fresh, he’s been working well over the Belmont track since right after the Kentucky Derby, and I believe he is the most talented horse (besides American Pharoah) in this race.
Definitely including American Pharoah in the mix, I’d also probably add Materiality and Mubtaahij for a trifecta and/or superfecta box.
And just for fun, let’s take another look at how close trainer Bob Baffert was to winning the Triple Crown with Real Quiet in 1998…
I’ll also remind readers of today’s TV coverage, which starts at 2:30 ET on NBCSN and 4:30 ET on NBC. Approximate post time for the Belmont is 6:50 ET.
Something else I want to point out to casual fans is just how big of a day for racing this has become over the last couple of years. Including the Belmont Stakes, there are six Grade-I races, a pair of Grade-II’s and a Grade-III that total over $7.5 million in purses.
We’re going to see last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, Bayern, take on last year’s Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist in the $1,250,000 Metropolitan Handicap, or “Met Mile.” We’ll see 2014 Kentucky Oaks winner and Champion Untapable probably leave her rivals in the dust in the $1,000,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes; we’ll see a handful of fillies who ran in this year’s Kentucky Oaks, including runner-up Shook Up in the $750,000 Acorn Stakes; and we’ll see some blockbuster turf races, where several European invaders have been shipped in to try and claim victory on American soil.
Overall it will be a phenomenal day for racing and betting. For additional predictions at Belmont, check out my buddy Dan’s site, where he does a tremendous job putting together selections and analysis for the entire card, and it’s all free.
Best of luck, and enjoy what could be the most historical day for horse racing since 1978!